All eyes are on US inflation figures for June, which could show some cooling in the headline rate of 4.2% as petrol prices decline. However, the recent oil surge threatens to reverse progress. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces Congress for the first time in his new role, with markets watching for signals on interest rates. Bond markets are pricing in roughly 34 basis points of tightening by end of 2026. The inflation outlook has been complicated by volatile energy markets. Major banks including JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs report earnings this week, providing insight into the financial sector’s health amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.